In March 2019 Italy became the only G7 country to sign up to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In December 2023 it withdrew.
Nothing dramatic happened in between. There was an election, a different coalition took office, and the new government let the agreement lapse.
You could call that democracy working as intended. Voters changed the government and the government changed the policy.
But there’s a problem. Railways, ports and pipelines last fifty years or more. Governments last four or five. A country that can reverse a strategic commitment at every election is free, but it’s also a difficult partner for anything long-term.
Now look at the opposite case. Hungary is building a railway from Budapest to Belgrade, financed largely by a Chinese loan. In 2020 the Hungarian parliament voted to keep the contracts classified for ten years.
That commitment is stable. The public just isn’t allowed to read it.
The usual worry about deals like these is foreign influence. I think the harder issue is closer to home. In both cases the decision was made by an elected national body, perfectly legally. One was easily undone. The other was sealed from view.
Neither looks like a good way to make a choice that will outlive everyone who voted on it.
Our democracies are built for short-term decisions that can be corrected at the next election. They have no settled method for decisions that can’t.
This is one of the questions I raise in my book, The Eurasian Century.
Should a commitment that binds a country for fifty years need more than an ordinary parliamentary majority, and if so, what?
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