Two Countries at War Signed a Deal Without Signing It Together

In July 2022, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement in the middle of a war. Neither one signed it with the other.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed Ukrainian grain to be shipped from its ports despite the fighting. But at the ceremony in Istanbul, Ukraine signed one document with Turkey and the United Nations. Russia signed a separate, mirror document with Turkey and the UN.

Two sides that wouldn’t put their names to the same piece of paper still agreed to the same thing.

That sounds like a diplomatic technicality. It’s actually one of the most useful ideas in negotiation.

We tend to assume that agreement needs trust. That you have to like, or at least believe, the other side before you can make a deal with them. That’s why so many of us give up on difficult negotiations early. “There’s no point. I don’t trust them.”

But the grain deal didn’t depend on trust. It depended on structure.

A Joint Coordination Centre was set up in Istanbul, with representatives from all four parties. Ships were inspected there. Nobody had to take anybody’s word for anything. According to the UN, more than 32 million tonnes of food were exported under the arrangement.

Here’s the uncomfortable part. Structure can only take you so far. In July 2023 Russia withdrew from the initiative, and it ended.

So what’s the lesson? That the deal failed? I’d argue the opposite. A year of shipments between countries at war is an extraordinary result. It lasted as long as both sides got something from it, and no longer. Most agreements work that way. The grain deal just made it obvious.

Now think about the negotiations you avoid because you don’t trust the other person. An ex-partner. A difficult business partner. A neighbour you’re in dispute with.

The question isn’t whether you trust them. It’s whether you can design something that doesn’t require you to: written terms, a neutral third party, steps you can each verify, a way out if it stops working.

This is one of the ideas I explore in Marta Skarbek’s This is Negotiation: trust is a lovely thing to have in a negotiation, but it’s a dangerous thing to depend on.

So here’s a question I’d genuinely like opinions on. Is an agreement built on verification instead of trust a real agreement? Or is it just a pause before the next fight?

Find the book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Marta-Skarbeks-This-Negotiation-negotiator/dp/B0D7VXFV7S

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